May record global warmth plus latest on El Nino
Paul Hudson
Latest El Nino forecast:
Ìý
A few months ago I wrote about the strong possibility of an El Nino event developing in the Pacific later this year.
Ìý
El Nino is the name given to describe an upwelling of warmer than average water in the Equatorial Pacific, and is known to
Ìý
The latest computer predictions give a 70% chance of an El Nino this summer, rising to 80% through autumn and winter.
Ìý
And according to the ECMWF model, the probability of an El Nino is even higher, at 90%.
Ìý
But talk of a very strong El Nino like that in 1997/98 appear wide of the mark, if the latest computer predictions are to be believed.
Ìý
In that year, a record El Nino propelled global temperatures to record levels.
Ìý
On the Met Office’s Hadley centre temperature measure 1998 remains the hottest year globally on record.
Ìý
But most computer models at the moment predict a weak to moderate El Nino later this year, way below the levels during that record breaking year.
Ìý
Not everyone is convinced by these computer estimates though and it may be too soon to write off a big El Nino event.
Ìý
Professor Alex Timmermann at the University of Hawaii is one of those who are sceptical of current computer forecasts.
Ìý
He told the Guardian a major El Nino event is more likely than not, arguing that the pattern of winds and warm water currently observed in the Pacific have in the past led to powerful El Nino events.
Ìý
It will be interesting to see how the situation develops in the next few months.
Ìý
Record Global warmth in May
Ìý
Global temperatures set a new record in May, according to NOAA, at 0.74C above the 20th century average. This follows the second warmest April globally on record.
Ìý
With current global warmth together with an El Nino later this year, there’s a high probability that either 2014 or 2015 will become the hottest year globally on record.